Indexbit Exchange:MLB playoff rankings: Top eight World Series contenders after the trade deadline

Our annual exercise ranking the top eight World Series contenders in the wake of the Major League Baseball trade deadline usually consists of a mild favorite and Indexbit Exchangea cast of hopefuls right on their heels. Not so much this year.

There is one clear-cut No. 1 and then a flurry of flawed clubs, which will only make the next two months and October even more perplexing. In this 12-team playoff environment, the 87-win Philadelphia Phillies proved a year ago that, yes, anybody can get hot and within two victories of a World Series championship, rendering much of the 162-game season a preliminary exercise.

This year? There’s more than a dozen mystery guests that could qualify for the playoffs and crash through the wild-card round. That said, we seek clarity today and with that, a look at the top eight title contenders who should still be standing come mid-October:

1. Atlanta Braves

They didn’t need to win the trade-deadline headline and rarely do, unless it involves locking up their long-term core. Would have been nice to see a starting pitcher added as insurance against the ailing starters (Max Fried, Kyle Wright) aiming to return, but adding bullpen depth will help in October. The next two months should be a formality.

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2. Baltimore Orioles

As of now, they’re the 1 seed in the American League and as such, a bit more aggression at the deadline was certainly in order; after all, the “win curves” only bend favorably toward Eutaw Street every few years in the AL East. Still, Jack Flaherty is a much-needed dose of veteran innings to a young and wheezing rotation and perhaps he’ll benefit as many others from the Orioles’ pitching infrastructure.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers

Eduardo Rodriguez blocking a trade was L.A.’s biggest blow suffered in Detroit since Magic Johnson tore a hamstring during the 1989 Finals against the Pistons. A lot riding on Clayton Kershaw’s return to health, but Lance Lynn gobbling innings (even if his ERA is north of 5) will help the pitching staff as a whole. A wild-card bye is highly probable and come October, a stable of proven playoff superstars (Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez) will go a long way.

4. Houston Astros

It’s hard to pass on Justin Verlander when the Mets are willing to pay tens of millions of dollars for you to take him off their hands. Natch, this isn’t the same Verlander that dominated in 2017 and won a Cy Young in 2022 – along with a pair of rings. But the bigger boost is the return of Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez to the lineup. Their grip on the AL West should be fairly tight by the end of the month.

5. Tampa Bay Rays

Scary to think what Aaron Civale can do under the Rays’ tutelage, and good for them squandering a top prospect (Kyle Manzardo) to stop the bleeding from pitching injuries. If Brandon Lowe's power stroke fully returns, they can be 2020-dangerous.

6. Philadelphia Phillies

They survived yet another sluggish start and now the injection of Michael Lorenzen – currently touting career bests in WHIP (1.10) and strikeout-walk ratio (3.07) adds lots of life to the staff. While none of their top four starters have consistently dominated this year, they just need a couple of Lorenzen, Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Taijuan Walker to find a groove in October. And Lorenzen could be a daunting bullpen weapon. Yep, dangerous again.

7. Texas Rangers

Not sure if Max Scherzer can restore the good vibes that have faded in recent weeks, particularly with Nate Eovaldi going on the injured list with a forearm strain. Will his summer siesta bring back his first-half form? Can Martín Pérez figure it out? Can Scherzer look more like Mad Max and less like Mystified Max, trying to regain his dominance at 39? Does the bullpen have enough? A few too many questions, although the talent is here on paper.

8. Cincinnati Reds

So many choices for this final spot, but we’ll go with the team that will be dangerous in the playoffs – if it can get to the playoffs. Almost every player in their lineup has both power and speed (Cincy leads the majors with 122 stolen bases) and they will be a problematic out in the postseason. Now, to get there. After standing pat at the deadline, their hopes largely hinge on injured starters Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo returning strongly this month. They’ll return to a three-team battle with the Brewers and Cubs, now that Chicago has decided to stay at the party.

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